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CONSEQUENCE
A consequence is a result of a course of action
(or of a decision) taken by the decision maker (Synonym: outcome;
see impact). In analysis, the consequences of a course of action
are determined (predicted) by the use of models. The
consequences that one would like to have, particularly those
that contribute positively to the attainment of objectives, are
referred to as [benefits;] the consequences that one would like
to avoid or minimize are costs. The consequences that do not
bear very much on the main objectives and are not evaluated in
the analysis but that may affect the objectives of other groups
of people are referred to as SPILLOVERS or externalities. A
consequence tree is a graph showing what further consequences
will be caused by some direct consequence of a course of action.
For example, one alternative to stimulate the economy may be to
lower taxes. This will result in an increase of average family
income, which will in time influence the number of cars, which
will have an impact on traffic conditions, on environmental
pollution, and so on. In the literature on decision theory it is
customary to speak about one [multiattribute consequence] of a
course of action instead of saying "the action has several
consequences." Accordingly, the term [single-attribute
consequence] is used when the course of action has only one
consequence that is being considered (e.g., monetary profit).
Within the context of decision theory, attributes are those
features of a consequence that are taken into account in the
evaluation of this consequence by the decision maker. One
speaks, more precisely, about [value-relevant attributes.]
In mathematical formulations one speaks about a mapping from the
space of courses of action (action space) into the space of
consequences (consequence space.) In a deterministic case the
mapping from action space to consequence space is a
point-to-point mapping. This means that a given course of action
has a given and certain consequence. In a case of risk or
uncertainty the mapping from action space to consequence space is
a point-to-set mapping; that is, a given course of action may
have any one of the consequences contained in a given set. In
analysis, the mapping from action space to consequence space is
described by a model. (IIASA)
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